Author: john.logan

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Money Smarts 101: The Essential Financial Literacy Guide You Can’t Afford to Miss

Let’s be real money can be super confusing. You hear people throwing around words like “compound interest,” “Roth IRA,” or “credit utilization,” and it’s like, “Okay, slow down, what does any of that even mean?” If you’ve ever felt a bit lost when it comes to your finances, you’re definitely not alone.

The truth is, most of us didn’t grow up learning how to manage money. Schools usually skip this stuff, and unless your parents were financial wizards (lucky you if they were!), you probably had to figure things out the hard way.

Well, not anymore. I’ve got you.

This guide Money Smarts 101 is your no-nonsense, friendly super crash course in financial literacy. We’re talking real-world money stuff that will help you feel more confident with your cash, stop living paycheck to paycheck, and maybe even start building a little (or a lot of) wealth.

Let’s get into it.

1. Why Financial Literacy Even Matters

Think of financial literacy like the GPS for your money journey. Without it, you’re kinda just wandering around, hoping you end up somewhere nice. But when you know the basics of budgeting, saving, and investing, you’re in control. You get to decide what your financial future looks like, not just react to bills and expenses when they show up.

More than that, it’s about freedom. Want to quit a job you hate? Move to another city? Travel more? Financial literacy gives you options.

2. Budgeting: The Secret Weapon Nobody Talks About Enough

Budgeting might sound boring, but honestly? It’s the key to unlocking everything else.

Let’s break it down.

A budget is just a plan for your money. That’s it. You tell your money where to go instead of wondering where it went.

The simplest way to start? Try the 50/30/20 rule:

  • 50% of your income goes to needs (rent, groceries, utilities).
  • 30% goes to wants (eating out, Netflix, shopping).
  • 20% goes to savings and debt repayment.

You can tweak these percentages, of course. The point is just to get intentional with your spending. Trust me, when you start tracking your money, it’s like getting a backstage pass to your financial life. You’ll spot leaks, overspending, and areas where you can save big.

3. The Emergency Fund: Your Financial Life Jacket

Life happens. Cars break down. Pets get sick. You lose your job unexpectedly.

That’s where your emergency fund comes in.

You want to build up 3 to 6 months of expenses in a separate, easy-to-access savings account. Not an investment account. Or anything else that might take 24-48 hrs to become cash in your hand. And not your checking account. Something you won’t be tempted to dip into for concert tickets or that bargain trip.

Start small if you need to. $500 is better than nothing. The important part is that you’re building a cushion between you and life’s “oh-shit” moments.

4. Credit Scores: The Adulting Score Nobody Warned You About

Your credit score is basically your financial reputation. It’s what lenders use to decide if they trust you with money. It affects everything from renting an apartment to getting a car loan (and car insurance), a decent interest rate on a credit card or even applying for a job in some cases. The higher the better.

Here’s how to keep it healthy:

  • Pay your bills on time. This is the biggest factor.
  • Keep credit card balances low (ideally under 30% of your limit).
  • Avoid opening too many new accounts too fast.
  • Keep old accounts open to build credit history.

You can check your score for free through apps like Credit Karma or even some credit card companies. Don’t be scared, think of it as a tool, not a judgment.

5. Debt: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Yep, there’s good debt and bad debt. Not all debt is created equal.

  • Good debt: Student loans (when used wisely), mortgages, or small business loans – basically anything that helps you grow financially. Or, when the lost opportunity cost is too big by paying cash. For example, suppose you had enough saved up to buy some new wheels and pay in cash, but the dealership or the car company is offering some special super-low interest rate (under 5%) on auto loans. Any good ETF is going to provide an average return of more than 5% per year so taking that loan and investing the money is smarter than paying cash.
  • Bad debt: High-interest credit cards, payday loans, or financing stuff you can’t afford like fancy shoes or a new iPhone every year.

If you’re stuck in a debt spiral, you’re not doomed. Here are two ways people often pay it off:

  • The Snowball Method: Pay off the smallest debt first. Quick wins keep you motivated.
  • The Avalanche Method: Pay off the debt with the highest interest rate first. Saves you the most money over time.

Both work. Pick one and start.

6. Saving: Make It a Habit, Not a Chore

Saving money doesn’t mean you can’t enjoy life. It just means you’re planning ahead so Future You doesn’t get screwed over.

Here’s how to make it easy:

  • Automate it: Set up auto-transfers so money moves to your savings before you can spend it.
  • Name your goals: “Trip to Italy” or “New car fund” is way more exciting than “savings.”
  • Round up: Apps like Chime or Qapital round up your purchases and put the spare change into savings. It adds up fast.

And don’t beat yourself up if you can only save a little right now. Small steps add up.

7. Investing: Let Your Money Work for You

This is where things get exciting. Investing is like planting money seeds that grow over time without you doing much.

You don’t need to be rich to start. You just need time and consistency.

Start with:

  • A Roth IRA or Traditional IRA: Retirement accounts that give you tax advantages.
  • Index funds or ETFs: Low-cost, diversified, and great for anyone who wants an easy way to invest without having to spend hours and hours researching individual stocks.
  • Employer 401(k): If your job offers one, especially with matching contributions, take advantage of it! But only up to the matched amount! That’s 100% free money. All your other savings can be put to better use elsewhere.
  • An Indexed Universal Life Policy (IUL): This awesome (and rarely mentioned) strategy combines a permanent life insurance policy (something you’ll need eventually anyway) and a savings component that 9 times out of 10 beats any investment account over time because (the secret sauce) it never loses money even when the economy and the stock market crash and burn.

Investing isn’t about timing the market. It’s about time in the market. Start early, stay consistent, and let compound interest do its thing.

8. Living Below Your Means (But Still Enjoying Life)

This doesn’t mean being cheap or depriving yourself. It simply means spending less than you make, so you can actually save and invest. Even if you have to start small.

Here’s the magic behind this trick: figure out what actually matters to you. Maybe you love to travel but don’t care about clothes. Spend on the things you love, and cut ruthlessly on the stuff you don’t.

You don’t have to do what everyone else is doing. Fancy cars, expensive watches, constant upgrades none of that stuff means much if you’re living paycheck to paycheck. Especially if you’re trying to impress people you don’t even really like.

9. Side Hustles & Extra Income: Your Financial Boosters

Sometimes, no matter how much you budget or save, it’s just not enough. That’s when making more money comes in.

Think about your skills. Can you:

  • Freelance?
  • Tutor?
  • Deliver food or drive Uber on weekends?
  • Sell handmade items or digital products?

Even an extra $100–200 a month can speed up your debt payoff or savings goals like crazy. And who knows? Your side hustle might become your full-time gig one day.

10. Avoiding Lifestyle Inflation

Ever get a raise and somehow still feel broke? That’s lifestyle inflation – spending more just because you earn more.

It’s sneaky. It creeps up on you. You get a raise and suddenly you’re upgrading your apartment, ordering takeout every night, or shopping more.

Fight it by:

  • Pretending you didn’t get the raise (at least at first).
  • Saving or investing the extra income. At the very least, increase your savings/investing budget by the same percentage that your income increased, i.e., if you got a 5% raise, then increase the amount you save or invest by 5%.
  • Upgrading slowly and intentionally, not impulsively is the key.

This is how people who earn $40K can end up wealthier than people making $100K. Google Ronald Read, he’s an outlier, but you’ll get the idea. If he can do it, you can do it. It’s all about how you manage it.

11. Money and Relationships: Keep It Real

Money can make or break relationships, romantic or otherwise. Be open about your financial fitness, especially with a partner. Talk about:

  • Debt
  • Spending habits
  • Financial goals
  • Budgeting together

Teamwork is key. It’s not always easy, but it’s so worth it. And if your partner avoids the conversation or hides things financially? That’s a big red flag, my friend.

12. Teach Your Kids (Or Future Kids) Early

Kids are like little financial sponges. If you’ve got little ones (or will someday), you can help them avoid the same confusion we all felt by teaching them early.

Start with:

  • Allowance systems
  • Earning vs. spending
  • Saving up for toys they want
  • Letting them make small money mistakes

Financial literacy is a lifelong gift you can pass on.

13. Beware of Financial “Gurus” and Trends

Everyone and their dog seems to be a financial expert on social media. Be careful.

Here’s what to look for in solid advice:

  • They take the time to understand your unique situation and don’t push a “one-size-fits-all” plan.
  • They emphasize saving and investing, not just luxury lifestyles.
  • They don’t push shady investments or “get-rich-quick” schemes.
  • They encourage slow, steady growth, not hype.
  • They work in your best interest, not their own or their firm’s

Oh, and remember: if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

14. Don’t Forget About the Boring Stuff

Adulting isn’t always glamorous. Some of the most important financial moves are super boring but they protect your future:

  • Health insurance (kind of a no-brainer)
  • Life insurance (essential if you have anyone whose lifestyle is even partially dependent on your income, like your spouse and kids)
  • Wills and estate planning (ditto if you want to decide who gets what and not the courts)
  • Cleaning your home and appliances regularly (to avoid costly repairs, yes, even afterthought services like Sanitair air duct cleaning might help your HVAC system last longer, saving you money in the long run!)

Little things add up. Protect your health, your stuff, and your peace of mind.

15. Progress > Perfection

Let me say this loud and clear: You don’t have to get it all right today.

Financial literacy isn’t about perfection. It’s about progress. You’re going to make mistakes. You’re going to forget to save one month or overspend during the holidays. That’s okay. Seriously.

Every step you take, even just reading this guide is part of your growth and puts you on the right path. You’ve already made progress just by learning more about money. Keep going.

Ready to Take Charge?

Okay, so that was a lot of info, but you’ve got this.

If you’re just starting, here are 3 quick things you can do this week:

  1. Track your spending for the last 30 days.
  2. Start an emergency fund, even if it’s just $50.
  3. Automate your savings and set up that transfer!

Then next month? Maybe you open a Roth IRA or buy an IUL. Or start learning more about index funds. Or finally have that money talk with your partner.

Whatever you do, don’t stop. This stuff matters.

You don’t have to be rich, perfect, or a math genius to be financially smart. In fact, the only math you really need to know right now is that two steps forward and one step back still equals one step forward. You just have to take that first step and promise yourself to keep going.

And if you haven’t done so already, get my book – now in its 3rd edition and learn how to plant your own money tree.

Get the book - now in its 3rd edition

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Recession-Proof Mindset: How to Survive andThrive When the Economy Turns South

Image: Freepik

Guest Post Written by Ted James

There’s something about the word “recession” that grabs your gut and twists. It’s not just the news alerts or the stock tickers—it’s the whisper of layoffs, the sting of rising bills, the quiet fear in everyday conversations. But the truth is, recessions come and go. The key is how you respond to them—whether you freeze in place, just scrape by, or find a way to come out better than before. Thriving in a recession doesn’t mean pretending it’s not hard. It means learning how to move smartly through the storm with clarity, grit, and maybe even a little optimism.

Trim the Fat, Not the Muscle

When things get tight, your first instinct might be to slash everything in sight. But you’ve got to be strategic—cutting expenses is good, but you don’t want to eliminate things that actually serve you. Cancel subscriptions you forgot you had, sure, but don’t stop investing in yourself. That $15-a-month skill-building course might help you land a better job later. Think of it like a personal budget cleanse: strip down to what matters, but don’t lose the fuel that keeps you going.

Get Loud About Your Value

You don’t need to be obnoxious, but you do need to be seen. Whether you’re employed, freelancing, or running your own business, this is the moment to make sure people know exactly what you bring to the table. Update your résumé, polish your LinkedIn profile, speak up in meetings. You want your name to come up when someone’s thinking about who’s indispensable—or who to hire. Visibility isn’t vanity—it’s insurance.

Gain New Skills with Online Education

Enrolling in an online degree program is a smart way to stay sharp and gain real-world skills that employers actually care about, especially when the job market feels shaky. The ability to study on your schedule means you can keep your current job while working toward something bigger, making each week a step forward instead of just surviving. If you’re eyeing a future in IT, pairing your degree with a CompTIA A+ certification can give you a stronger foundation and open more doors in a highly competitive field.

Utilize Your Network

It’s tempting to hunker down and isolate when things feel unstable, but now’s the time to reach out. Check in on old coworkers, grab coffee with mentors, comment on posts from people in your industry. You’re not begging for a job—you’re planting seeds. Most opportunities don’t come from cold applications; they come from conversations, from someone saying, “Hey, I know a person.” That person should be you.

Turn Downtime Into Building Time

If your workload has shrunk or you’re between jobs, you can still be working—just on a different kind of project. Start that side hustle you always pushed aside. Learn to code, write, design, market—whatever might increase your options. Not everything has to turn into a business, but building things builds momentum, and that’s what you need. Even if the result is a small portfolio or a few extra bucks a month, that’s leverage.

Control What You Can, Ignore What You Can’t

It’s easy to spiral when headlines are blaring layoffs and inflation numbers. But you’ve got to develop a kind of tunnel vision when it comes to your daily actions. You can’t control the Fed or global markets, but you can decide to bring your lunch, apply to two jobs a day, or spend an hour learning a new skill. That kind of focus builds mental toughness. And honestly, it’s what keeps your head above water when everything else feels chaotic.

Look for the Cracks—That’s Where the Light Gets In

Recessions break systems, and broken systems reveal needs. That means there are gaps—problems waiting for solutions, services people still need but can’t find. If you’re entrepreneurial, this is where your brain should be buzzing. Is there something your neighbors are missing? Are businesses pulling back on something you could offer cheaper or better? New industries are born in downturns, often by people who were paying attention when everyone else was panicking.

Make Peace With “Enough”

Here’s something no one likes to talk about during a recession: sometimes thriving doesn’t mean climbing—it means finding a solid middle ground and standing on it proudly. Maybe your goals shift from buying a house to keeping your apartment. Maybe your idea of success becomes sleeping through the night without anxiety. That’s not failure. That’s adapting. Thriving means you’re still growing, even if it’s not flashy—and that growth will serve you later when the tide turns again.

Don’t Just Brace—Train

When the economy contracts, it can feel like you’re constantly bracing for impact. But what if, instead, you treated it like training? The way athletes add resistance to build strength, you’re now in a season that will sharpen you—financially, emotionally, professionally. Every decision you make now becomes part of your foundation. And when things rebound, as they always do, you’ll have built the muscles to sprint, not just survive.

No one’s pretending it’s easy. Recessions take things—jobs, homes, routines, sometimes even dreams. But they also offer strange and surprising gifts: a reevaluation of priorities, a reminder of your resilience, a chance to go back to school to upgrade your skills. You can’t always change the economy, but you can always change how you navigate it. Find your footing, keep moving, and look for the doors that only open in tough times. Thriving isn’t a myth. It’s a mindset—and it’s yours for the taking.

Unlock the secrets to financial freedom and secure your future. Subscribe to the Millennial Money Tree blog so you’ll get alerts when new posts like this come out.

Ted James is a husband, father, dog owner, and rock climber living in the Pacific Northwest who devotes a large chunk of his time helping people get back in the driver’s seat of their finances. He created his site, Ted Knows Money, to share money tips and help people get complete control of their finances.

And if you haven’t done so already, get my book – now in its 3rd edition and learn how to plant your own money tree.

Get the book - now in its 3rd edition

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How to Know When It Makes Financial Sense to Stop Renting and Buy a Home

Image: Freepik

Guest Post Written by Ted James

You’ve probably heard someone say, “Renting is just throwing money away.” And while that makes for a catchy soundbite, it’s not always true. There are plenty of reasons why renting can be the smarter move—just like there comes a point when buying makes more sense. The challenge is figuring out when that shift happens for you, not your coworker, not your cousin, not your favorite financial influencer—you. Because timing a home purchase isn’t just about interest rates or Instagram aesthetics. It’s about the messier, real-life math and mindset that tell you it might be time to trade rent checks for a mortgage.

You’ve Built a Solid Emergency Cushion

Let’s be real—owning a home means stuff will break, usually at the worst possible time. Whether it’s a leaking roof or a surprise furnace meltdown, you’ll need money on hand to handle it. If you’ve got an emergency fund that covers at least three to six months of expenses, you’re in a stronger position to take on the unknowns of ownership. That cushion is your financial safety net, and if it’s solid, it means you might be ready to leave the rent game behind.

Your Rent Is Creeping Up Faster Than Your Paycheck

There comes a point when renewing your lease feels like a financial gut punch. If your rent keeps rising year after year while your income only inches up, that’s a signal. Owning a home can lock in your monthly costs with a fixed-rate mortgage, giving you a sense of predictability you just can’t get with renting. When the rent-versus-buy calculator starts tipping in favor of buying over the long run, it’s time to run the numbers more seriously.

Ownership Comes With Hidden Costs You Didn’t Pay as a Renter

When you’re renting, it’s easy to take for granted that someone else is footing the bill when your dishwasher breaks or the water heater dies. But once you own, that safety net disappears, and the cost of repairs or full-on replacements can hit hard—especially when they all seem to happen at once. For first-time buyers who aren’t used to shelling out for these kinds of surprises, services offering home appliance coverage for consumers can create a buffer, helping reduce the financial uncertainty that comes with ownership. It won’t eliminate every bill, but it can take the edge off and bring a little predictability.

You’re Sticking Around for a While

Buying a home is a bit like planting roots—you don’t do it if you plan to move in a year or two. If your life feels stable in terms of career, community, and personal relationships, homeownership can start making sense. The upfront costs of buying are high, but if you’re going to be in the same spot for five years or more, those costs start to even out. Think of it like a relationship: commitment matters if you’re going to take the plunge.

You Can Afford More Than Just the Mortgage

One of the biggest mistakes people make is thinking the monthly mortgage is the only cost to factor in. There’s property tax, insurance, HOA fees, maintenance, and yes, the occasional plumber who charges weekend rates because, of course, your pipes waited until Saturday to burst. If you’ve crunched the numbers and can comfortably cover all those extras without wiping out your checking account, then you’re looking at a clearer green light to buy. Otherwise, renting might still be the safer route.

You’re Mentally Ready to Be the Landlord Now

This isn’t a line item on a spreadsheet, but it’s just as important. Owning means you’re the one calling the shot when things go wrong. You don’t get to submit a maintenance ticket and wait. You’re the ticket. If the thought of handling repairs, lawn care, and all the little responsibilities that come with owning doesn’t overwhelm you, that’s a big mental shift in the right direction. Financial readiness is one piece—emotional bandwidth is another.

The Market Isn’t Working Against You

Even if you’re personally ready, the market might not be. Maybe home prices are bloated in your area, or interest rates are spiking, or inventory is so low you’re being outbid by cash buyers who don’t even blink. If the numbers feel stacked against you right now, there’s nothing wrong with waiting. In fact, patience can be a financial power move. But if the market cools, or you find a sweet spot where buying actually costs you less than renting long-term, that’s your moment to dig in.

You Want to Build Something, Not Just Pay for It

Renting is like borrowing someone else’s dream. Buying means you get to build your own. That might sound cheesy, but it’s real—homeownership gives you a shot at growing equity, customizing your space, and maybe turning your biggest expense into an investment over time. If you’re craving something more permanent, something that actually returns value to you beyond just shelter, then buying could be your next financial milestone.


There’s no universal answer to when renting stops making sense. It’s a mix of math, mindset, and where you’re at in life. What matters is that you take the time to zoom out and see the whole picture—not just the mortgage calculator or the Pinterest boards, but the day-to-day realities. If your finances, lifestyle, and future goals are aligning, that’s your sign. Not from a TikTok guru or a bank flyer—but from your own honest assessment of what’s right for you.

Unlock the secrets to financial freedom and secure your future. Subscribe to the Millennial Money Tree blog so you’ll get alerts when new posts like this come out.

Ted James is a husband, father, dog owner, and rock climber living in the Pacific Northwest who devotes a large chunk of his time helping people get back in the driver’s seat of their finances. He created his site, Ted Knows Money, to share money tips and help people get complete control of their finances.

And if you haven’t done so already, get my book and learn how to plant your own money tree.

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Mastering Your Money Mindset: How to Build a Healthy Financial Relationship

Image via Pexels

Guest Post Written by Ted James


Developing a strong and healthy relationship with money is about more than just earning and spending—it’s about cultivating financial habits that support long-term stability, security, and freedom. Many people struggle with financial anxiety, impulsive spending, or simply feeling like they don’t have enough, but these challenges can be overcome with intentionality and knowledge.

Establish a Budget That Works fr You Your

A budget isn’t a financial punishment—it’s a tool for clarity, freedom, and control. Creating a budget allows you to see exactly where your money is going and how it can work for you instead of against you. By outlining your income, expenses, and savings goals, you create a financial roadmap that aligns with your priorities. The key to sticking to a budget is flexibility—adjust it as your needs change and ensure it supports, rather than restricts, your lifestyle.

Define Your Short-Term and Long-Term Goals

Without financial goals, it’s easy to drift aimlessly through life without making meaningful progress. Establishing both short-term and long-term objectives provides motivation and a sense of direction in your financial journey. Short-term goals might include building an emergency fund, paying off a specific debt, or saving for a vacation, while long-term goals could involve homeownership, retirement savings, or financial independence.

Aligning Career Choices with Financial Goals

Choosing a career that aligns with your financial goals ensures that your professional path supports the lifestyle and security you envision. Earning an online degree can boost your income while giving you the flexibility to work while you learn, allowing you to invest in your future without sacrificing your current responsibilities. If you’re interested in leadership roles within the healthcare sector, earning a master’s degree in health administration can develop your healthcare knowledge and expertise as a leader. To take the next step, you can find a healthcare administration program online that fits your schedule and career aspirations.

Make Saving a Non-Negotiable Habit

One of the most effective ways to build financial security is by making saving a regular, automatic habit. Instead of treating savings as an afterthought, prioritize it as a necessary expense by setting aside a portion of your income consistently. Automating savings through direct transfers into a separate account can remove the temptation to spend the extra money. Even small, consistent contributions add up over time, giving you a safety net that allows for financial freedom and peace of mind. It’s also helpful to establish an emergency fund.

Commit to Lifelong Financial Education

The more you understand money, the better equipped you are to make informed, confident financial decisions. Financial literacy isn’t something you learn once and forget—it’s an ongoing process that evolves with your financial situation. Reading books, listening to podcasts, attending financial workshops, or working with a financial advisor can help you stay informed about investment strategies, retirement planning, and money management techniques. Knowledge is power, and in the financial world, that power translates into long-term security and growth..

Practice Mindful Spending

Spending money isn’t the problem—spending money without intention is. Mindful spending is about aligning your purchases with your values, ensuring that every dollar you spend enhances your life in a meaningful way. Instead of falling into the trap of impulse buys or keeping up with societal expectations, take a step back and ask yourself whether a purchase truly adds value. When you spend with purpose, you not only protect your financial well-being but also cultivate a deeper sense of satisfaction with what you already have.

Reframe Limiting Beliefs About Money

Your mindset around money plays a crucial role in your financial reality. Many people carry limiting beliefs about money, such as “I’ll never be rich,” “Money is evil,” or “I’m just not good with money.” These beliefs can sabotage financial growth by creating a scarcity mindset that prevents you from taking positive action. Reframing these thoughts into empowering beliefs—such as “I have the ability to create wealth” or “Money is a tool that allows me to live well and help others”—can transform your financial outlook and behaviors.

Your mindset around money plays a crucial role in your financial reality. Many people carry limiting beliefs about money, such as “I’ll never be rich,” “Money is evil,” or “I’m just not good with money.” These beliefs can sabotage financial growth by creating a scarcity mindset that prevents you from taking positive action. Reframing these thoughts into empowering beliefs—such as “I have the ability to create wealth” or “Money is a tool that allows me to live well and help others”—can transform your financial outlook and behaviors.

Unlock the secrets to financial freedom and secure your future by visiting the Millennial Money Tree Blog!

Ted James is a husband, father, dog owner, and rock climber living in the Pacific Northwest who devotes a large chunk of his time helping people get back in the driver’s seat of their finances. He created his site, Ted Knows Money, to share money tips and help people get complete control of their finances.

Subscribe to the Millennial Money Tree blog so you’ll get alerts when new posts like this come out.

And if you haven’t done so already, get my book and learn how to plant your own money tree.

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How Changing Your Thoughts About Money Can ChangeYour Life

Photo by Freepik

Guest Post Written by Ted James


The way people think about money shapes their choices, habits, and opportunities. A
mindset rooted in fear or limitation can create barriers, while a perspective focused on
growth and possibility opens new doors. Shifting beliefs around wealth isn’t just about
numbers—it’s about transforming the way success is approached. Small mental
adjustments can lead to better decisions, increased confidence, and greater financial
stability. Changing the relationship with money is the first step toward achieving the life
people truly want.

What Are Your Limiting Beliefs?


To achieve financial success, it’s essential to confront and reshape any limiting beliefs you have about money. These beliefs, often rooted in childhood or societal influences, can unknowingly prevent you from seizing financial opportunities. For example, if you think wealth is unattainable or that you don’t deserve financial prosperity, you might unintentionally undermine your efforts to improve your financial situation. By actively questioning these negative narratives and adopting a more positive, growth-oriented mindset, you can unlock new possibilities and pathways to wealth.

Build Financial Literacy

Changing your money mindset is essential for achieving greater success in life. By
continuously educating yourself about personal finance, you can build confidence and
reduce financial anxiety. As the economy evolves and new financial tools emerge, staying
informed helps you make better decisions and adapt to changes. Utilize free resources like
podcasts, online articles, and library books to gain valuable insights without incurring
additional costs. Engaging with personal finance blogs provides real-world examples and
strategies that can inspire you to manage your finances more effectively.

Embrace Mindful Spending

Adopting a mindful spending approach can transform your financial mindset by aligning
your purchases with your core values and long-term goals. This practice encourages you to
evaluate each expense thoughtfully, helping you avoid impulsive decisions that can lead to
financial stress. By recognizing the true value of your money and understanding the
opportunity cost of each dollar spent, you can make more informed choices. Techniques
like the ‘Waiting List’ approach and calculating the ‘Hour Value’ of purchases can refine
your spending habits, fostering increased savings and financial stability.

Design a Clear Budget

A budget isn’t just about tracking expenses—it’s a tool for building the future you want.
Aligning spending with financial goals creates clarity and ensures that money is working
toward something meaningful. Prioritizing essentials, cutting unnecessary costs, and
setting aside funds for growth helps create a balanced approach. When every dollar has a
purpose, financial decisions become easier and more intentional. A well-structured budget
turns aspirations into achievable milestones.

Go Back to School

Advancing your education can open doors to better career opportunities and higher
earning potential. Online programs provide flexibility for those looking to gain new skills or
earn a degree while balancing work and other responsibilities. There are an array of
options to choose from—if you’re already a nurse, you can work toward an RN to BSN
degree to expand your qualifications. The convenience of online learning makes it easier
for working professionals to further their education without putting their careers on hold.
Investing in education is a powerful way to create long-term financial growth and stability.

Consider Income Diversification

Diversifying your income sources is a vital strategy for achieving financial security. By
distributing your earnings across various avenues, such as side businesses, freelance work,
or investments, you can mitigate the risks associated with relying solely on one income
source. This approach can help you reach financial goals like saving for retirement or buying a home more quickly and supports your ability to invest in a broader range of assets, thereby strengthening your financial foundation. Moreover, engaging in diverse income-generating activities can lead to personal growth by expanding your skill set and professional network, ultimately increasing your marketability.

By transforming your money mindset, you open the door to a world of opportunities that
can lead to both personal and professional success. Whether it’s through education,
mindful spending, or income diversification, each step you take toward a healthier financial
perspective brings you closer to a secure and fulfilling future.


Discover the secrets to financial freedom and secure your future with expert insights from the Millennial Money Tree Blog!

Ted James is a husband, father, dog owner, and rock climber living in the Pacific Northwest who devotes a large chunk of his time helping people get back in the driver’s seat of their finances. He created his site, Ted Knows Money, to share money tips and help people get complete control of their finances.

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Goldman Sachs Predicts Another Lost Decade for the S&P 500

Goldman Sachs predicts a dire outcome in teh next decade

In a report released right before the election last year, Goldman Sachs, a cornerstone of Wallstreet and heavyweight in investment banking, securities, and investment management, made a forecast that has left investors flummoxed.

Here’s what they said in the first bullet point of the report:

“We estimate the S&P 500 will deliver an annualized nominal total return of 3% during the next 10 years (7th percentile since 1930) and roughly 1% on a real basis. Annualized nominal returns between -1% and +7% represents a range of likely outcomes around our baseline forecast and reflects the uncertainty inherent in forecasting the future. During the past decade the S&P 500 posted a 13% annualized total return (58th percentile)”

Just 3% a year for the next decade and a minuscule 1% after adjusting for inflation?

That is naturally both surprising and alarming for investors who are heavily invested in stocks. Over a decade, a 3% annualized return estimate would mean a total return of just 34%. Those are only estimates of course, but they imply the equivalent of nearly another “Lost Decade” for stocks and one of the worst stretches since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Goldman’s research indicates that bonds are 72% likely to outperform stocks over the next decade.

This is a huge shift from the traditional belief that stocks normally outperform bonds over the long term. And, bonds offer this higher return potential with a fraction of the risk associated with stocks.

Current data points, however, show that the economy is strong. Corporations are reporting solid earnings growth, and the Fed is planning to lower interest rates, which typically fuels growth in the stock market. However, last year’s 23% upswing was concentrated in just a handful of the biggest technology stocks, referred to as ‘the Magnificent Seven,’ led by companies like GPU maker Nvidia and Alphabet (Google’s parent company). The report emphasizes that it is difficult for any firm to sustain high levels of sales growth that equates to juicier profit margins over extended periods.

Importantly, the forecast does not suggest that we are heading towards a recession. Instead, it is based on two key factors.

The first is valuation: Goldman Sachs leans into the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) ratio, a valuation measure used to predict future returns from equities over 10 to 20 years. According to the current CAPE ratio, stocks have only been more expensive 3% of the time throughout history. This strongly suggests that stocks are currently overpriced, which could limit their future returns.

The second factor is the over-concentration in tech stocks: Tech companies have been the star performers in recent years, driving up stock market indices. However, Goldman Sachs believes these tech companies will likely face increased competition in the future, which could limit their growth and, consequently, their contribution to stock market returns. Since they equate to a third of the S&P’s value, that could certainly have dire consequences.

This forecast is particularly noteworthy because the firm has no vested interest in promoting bonds over stocks. Like most investment firms, Goldman Sachs benefits primarily from higher stock prices. So this is no marketing ploy, which makes their prediction even more compelling and worthy of serious consideration by investors.

I will note though, that in the report, Goldman admitted that “Historically, our model has done a poor job of explaining returns across periods containing large shocks to the economic backdrop or periods of rapid technological change.” And it’s pretty obvious that what they’re saying indirectly is that, sometime in the next 10 years, the S&P is going to experience an epic fall, much like the financial crisis in 2008-9. At least that’s what their math concludes – as well as their model per their report.

Again, even their best case shows only 7%.

Going back decades, stocks have returned around 10% on an annualized basis.

There are a number of factors that could contribute to the S&P 500’s underperformance in the coming years. One is any rise in interest rates. Higher interest rates make it more expensive for companies to borrow money, which can slow down economic growth and hurt corporate profits. Another factor is the ongoing trade war between the United States and China. The trade war has disrupted global supply chains and raised costs for businesses. Trump’s plans for tariffs might have the same effect. This could also hurt corporate profits and weigh on the stock market.

What are the odds of a big crash within the next decade?

Pretty high actually, if history is taken into consideration.  Since 1900, according to Morningstar and Investopedia, the market has had a pattern of crashing every 7 to 8 years. While 2022 was bad, it was a correction, not a full-on crash. It’s not an exact science, but there seems to be enough data to at least mention it. And oddly enough, their prediction coincides with another forecast made way back in 1875 by Samuel Benner.

Which has been surprisingly accurate for over a century.

Of course, there are also a number of factors that could lead to the S&P 500 outperforming Goldman Sachs’s expectations. One is the strong U.S. economy. The economy is currently growing at a healthy pace and unemployment is low. This could lead to continued growth in corporate profits and support the stock market. Another factor is the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance on interest rates. The Fed has indicated that it is willing to be patient in raising rates, which could help to support the stock market.

“See, we alerted everyone and people took steps to avoid the calamity.“

All that said, I always find it hilarious that the people who make these kinds of economic forecasts never, ever, admit they were wrong. Especially with regard to dire forecasts like this. If it does behave remotely like what they say it will, they’ll say “We warned you!”. And if it does the opposite, meaning better than their forecast, they’ll say “See, we alerted everyone and people took steps to avoid the calamity.”

Ultimately, the S&P 500’s performance over the next decade will depend on a number of factors as described above. But Goldman Sachs’s forecast is just one reason people are looking at other assets, like precious metals and crypto currencies, as a hedge against both downturns and inflation.

My favorite, of course, is Bitcoin. Compare Bitcoin’s potential future returns to all your other investments’ potential future returns. Be conservative on BTC returns. Be generous on the S&P 500’s returns. Keep analyzing. Keep running the numbers. And if you’re like me, you’ll start to wonder why you had 90+% of your investment savings in assets you fully expected to underperform Bitcoin.

The more I studied, the harder it became to NOT be all in. But that’s just me. Make the comparison on your own. Ignore all the Dr. Doom-like Peter Schiffs out there that say Bitcoin won’t live up to its predictable future.

Then wait until you have years of your own portfolio returns telling you the same thing you might be starting to realize now. You’ll be mad that you didn’t buy more BTC sooner. I sure was.

But chances are good that (even years from now) you’ll still be labeled as crazy because so few people will understand what you will so clearly understand.

Below is a link to a 10 minute interview with Goldman Sachs Chief US Equity Strategist, David Kostin, explaining their reasons for that prediction.

Here is the link to the original report:

https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2024/10/18/29e68989-0d2c-4960-bd4b-010a101f711e.pdf

Subscribe to my blog so you’ll get alerts when new posts like this come out.

And if you haven’t done so already, get my book (now in its 3rd edition) and learn how to plant your own money tree.

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Stress-Free Finances: Techniques to Help Ease Financial Pressure

Guest Post Written by Ted James

Financial stress can significantly disrupt your peace of mind, yet adopting concrete strategies can help you regain control and enhance your financial stability. These methods not only provide relief but also empower you to build a more secure financial future. By understanding and implementing effective financial management techniques, you can start to alleviate the pressures of financial uncertainty. This guide outlines essential practices that can help stabilize your financial situation and reduce stress.

Creating a Robust Emergency Fund

Having a solid emergency plan is crucial for reducing financial stress. Start by setting aside a small portion of your income each month into a savings account specifically for emergencies. Aim to build a fund that can cover three to six months of living expenses. This cushion can help you handle unexpected expenses like medical bills or car repairs without resorting to credit cards or loans. Review and adjust your emergency plan regularly to ensure it meets your evolving needs.

Embracing Remote Work

Working from home can be a pivotal strategy in mitigating financial stress. By cutting out the daily commute, you not only save on fuel costs but also lessen the wear and tear on your vehicle. Additionally, the casual dress code of home offices can significantly reduce your spending on work attire. The tranquility of a home environment tends to enhance focus and relaxation, boosting productivity which can lead to career growth and further financial stability..

Practicing Mindful Spending Habits

Mindful spending is essential for managing financial stress. Begin by tracking your expenses to understand where your money goes each month. Identify non-essential purchases and find ways to cut back. Setting a budget can help you stay on track. Allocate funds for necessary expenses first, then designate an amount for discretionary spending. This approach helps you prioritize your spending and avoid impulsive purchases that can lead to financial strain.

Consolidating Debt for Simplicity

Debt consolidation can be an effective strategy to reduce financial stress. By combining multiple debts into a single payment, you can simplify your financial obligations and potentially lower your interest rates. Look for consolidation options that offer favorable terms and consider seeking advice from a financial advisor to ensure this strategy aligns with your long-term financial goals. Regularly monitoring your progress can keep you motivated and on track to becoming debt-free.

Maximizing Savings with Sales and Coupons

Shopping sales and using coupons can significantly reduce your expenses. Plan your shopping around sales events and take advantage of discounts and promotions. Using coupons, both digital and paper, can add up to substantial savings over time. Compare prices across different stores and be strategic about when and where you shop. This approach can help you stretch your budget further and reduce the financial stress associated with everyday purchases.

The Power of Downsizing

Downsizing can be a practical solution for alleviating financial stress. Evaluate your living situation and consider whether a smaller home or apartment might be more cost-effective. Reducing housing costs can free up funds for other essential expenses or savings. Additionally, downsizing can simplify your life by reducing maintenance and utility costs. This approach can provide a sense of financial freedom and peace of mind.

Focusing on Controllable Factors

Focusing on what you can control is vital for managing financial stress. Identify areas of your financial life where you can make improvements, such as cutting unnecessary expenses or increasing your income through side gigs or additional work. Avoid stressing over factors beyond your control, like market fluctuations or economic downturns. Instead, channel your energy into actions that can positively impact your financial situation. Setting realistic goals and regularly reviewing your progress can help you stay motivated and focused.

By adopting these strategies, you can take proactive steps to reduce financial stress and gain better control over your finances. Establishing an emergency plan, practicing mindful spending, consolidating debt, shopping sales, embracing remote work, downsizing, and focusing on controllable factors can provide a solid foundation for financial stability. Implement these practices to achieve a more secure and stress-free financial future.

Millennial Money Tree is here to help you save better and spend more consciously. Let us know if you have any questions!

Ted James is a husband, father, dog owner, and rock climber living in the Pacific Northwest who devotes a large chunk of his time helping people get back in the driver’s seat of their finances. He created his site, Ted Knows Money, to share money tips and help people get complete control of their finances.

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Bitcoin Hit $100,000. Not As Exciting As We Thought. What Comes Next?

In the wild and wacky world of digital assets…

Bitcoin stands as a shining beacon of innovation and, let’s be honest, a whole lot of head-scratching. Its price fluctuations have captivated investors and analysts alike, leading to countless attempts to unravel the mysteries behind its movements. One approach that has gained traction (and the only one that I believe has any proof behind it) is the analysis of Bitcoin’s historical cycles. So, buckle up, folks, as we embark on a journey through how Bitcoin’s cyclical nature might forecast for the future

Bitcoin’s Cyclical Nature: A Tale of Boom, Bust, and HODLing

Over the past decade plus, Bitcoin has exhibited a remarkable recurring pattern of boom-and-bust cycles that would make a rollercoaster operator green with envy. Noting, however, that a roller coaster ride is the same each time if you’re on the same one, meaning: what happens is predictable. As I’ve previously posted (investing-in-bitcoin-101) these 4-year cycles typically consist of three distinct phases:

The (mature) bull market, which lasts about 1 year. Technically, that is initiated by the BTC halving, but in terms of the actual gate opening, this phase starts right around the last month of the halving year, which, as I write this, was 2024. This phase ends when the newest (i.e. latest in the cycle) Bitcoin all-time high (ATH) is achieved, whether that is a double top (as in 2013 and 2021 and potentially 2025 – more on that later) or a single top (as in 2017).

The bear market, which lasts about 1 year. A bear market follows quickly after the ATH and a cliff drop of the BTC price marks the beginning of ‘crypto winter’. On average, Bitcoin loses well over 75% of its value during this phase of the cycle. The vast majority of new investors (and even some seasoned veterans who buy into the “this time is different” hype) lose hope…and their money…somewhere in here. The ONLY possible difference I see coming this cycle is that maybe the market has matured enough (meaning grown in size enough) that NEW whales like Blackrock may have enough power to keep the coming crash from being a cliff drop. 2026 will be the teller on that.

The recovery phase, AKA the early bull market, which lasts about 2 years. After every sharp decline Bitcoin has reached a macro price bottom, and then there is a long phase of accumulation opportunity that defines the so-called ‘boredom’ of crypto winter. During this phase, Bitcoin always goes up, but it does so very slowly with numerous corrections. And in some cycles, like both 2012-16 and 2020-24, trades in nearly flat patterns for months at a time.

Annually, from the year the halving date occurs: Up, up, down, up.

Historical Cycle Analysis: The Ups and Downs of Bitcoin’s Price

The most recent Bitcoin cycle began on April 19th of 2024, when the price was a happy $63,844, having already hit the then surprise ATH of $73,650 just a month prior.  That ATH at the END of a cycle, an historic first, was indeed something new and different for crypto enthusiasts. Since then, Bitcoin has experienced what I’m calling a bull “walk” (as opposed to bull run), plodding slowly up just past $103K and then retreating slightly, and as I write this in early January, back up over the $100K mark just a hair.

I will say that I (like many other OGs in the crypto community) fully expected a HUGE drop after all those longer-in-the-tooth investors that had $100K as long term price targets had their sell orders filled, but here’s the thing: the market cap has grown SO MUCH in just the last 5 years that those folks who had that set a $100,000 mark as a target back before or slightly after $50K were few in comparison to the much larger market now. So, the $25+ billion selloff that happened shortly after that $100K mark was reached had A LOT LESS impact on the $2.09 TRILLION market (now) than it would have had on the roughly $126 BILLION dollar market of just 5 years ago.

Meaning that “buy the dip” opportunity at $94,312.26 a week after $100K hit had a lot less long term ROI potential than the $75K-ish bottom spot I expected when the market was 1600x plus SMALLER than it is today. That’s just insane growth to me. That said, I thought for sure we’d see a double top – just over $100K then a big drop and then a new much higher high like in the 2020-2024 cycle – but I’m just as happy to be wrong about that.

Published Bitcoin Predictions: Experts Weigh In

Numerous analysts and institutions have published their Bitcoin price predictions, ranging from the cautiously optimistic to the downright delusional. Here are a few notable ones that are at least based on reasonable data:

* Stock-to-Flow Model: This much criticized but pretty darn accurate model predicts that Bitcoin’s price will reach $422,362 by the end of 2025. I think that’s quite a stretch, but then, unless PlanB’s model breaks, he could very well be right. And others agree.

* Mike Novogratz: The CEO of Galaxy Digital predicted that Bitcoin will hit $500,000…IF (note the big if here) Trump follows through with plans to implement a US strategic reserve of Bitcoin. He and I both agree that’s unlikely but should it actually happen, he may be right.

* Cathie Wood: The founder of Ark Invest predicts that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030. Early last year I thought she was spot on. Now, I’m saying that doesn’t happen until 2033, but hey boys and girls…that’s only 8 years away. That’s a blink of an eye in economic terms.

My Prediction: Base case = $177,000 by YE 2025

Based on Bitcoin’s historical cycles and my published predictions, I currently believe that Bitcoin’s price will be at $177,000 by the end of 2025, having already reached a higher new ATH earlier in the fall. How high of an ATH? Conservatively, I’ll say $220,000.

However…

The Potential Upside: $302,000 with Trump’s Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

If soon-to-be President Donald Trump implements a Bitcoin strategic reserve, as he has suggested, it could indeed have a huge impact on the price. A strategic reserve would essentially create a tidal wave of demand for Bitcoin. Not just in the US, but I would foresee other nation states following suit, potentially driving the price to enormous new highs. In this scenario, I believe that Bitcoin could easily reach $302,000 by the end of 2025. However, let’s not forget that Trump is known for his, shall we say, wishful thinking. So, take this prediction with a grain of salt and a healthy dose of skepticism.

Obviously, we’ll know soon enough whether my numbers match up with reality but I take pride in the fact that my published guesses based on cyclical growth patterns haven’t been all that much off…so far. 😉

2021           $55,053.1289.83%8.7% LESS than my guess made 3/4/21
2022            $16,547.50-69.94%3.8% HIGHER than my guess made 2/12/22
2023            $42,265.19155.42%15.47% HIGHER than my guess made 2/15/23
2024           $93,452.97121.11%6.11% LESS than my guess made 2/9/24

Will I be right or wrong this year? Truthfully, it shouldn’t matter since I tell everyone the same thing:

Don’t wait to buy Bitcoin. Buy Bitcoin and wait.

Disclaimer: Do Your Own Research!

My predictions are based on historical cyclical data and published forecasts, and the caveat of course is that they should not be considered financial advice. While I still believe the cycle clock is ticking correctly, investors should always conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.

Remember, some still say investing in Bitcoin is like playing a game of poker with Lady Luck herself. Larry Fink, Michael Saylor and I disagree, but…you do you.

Just don’t tell me I didn’t let you know what’s coming.

Full disclosure: Upwards of 85+% of my cryptocurrency portfolio is now straight up Bitcoin, and give or take a few percentage points, around 10% is Ethereum. I converted almost all of my other ALTs (with the exception of XRP and SHIB) to Bitcoin back before it hit $100K the first time.

If you want to know more about what I see happening in the crypto market, feel free to email me at john.logan@moneytree.ventures.

Subscribe to my blog so you’ll get alerts when new posts like this come out.

And if you haven’t done so already, get my book and learn how to plant your own money tree. 3rd edition is now available!

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6 Reasons Why You Should Own Some Bitcoin…

Bitcoin on Scales

And 6 Reasons Why You Shouldn’t Own ANY Bitcoin

Yeah, that’s right. There are pros and cons to owning the King of Cryptos.

And because everyone’s investment risk profile is different, there is no “one size fits all” guaranteed investment philosophy for investing in Bitcoin. These are MY opinions – shared by plenty on both sides of the turf – but you’ll have to make up your own mind as to which make more sense for you.

It doesn’t matter where you are on your investment timeline.

Just beginning to accumulate or earnestly working to preserve, reallocate and grow what you already have as you enjoy your golden years, first up – here are six key reasons why Bitcoin is poised, once again, to exceed market expectations in the coming months and why YOU should own some.

Reason #1: Price Elasticity/Market Resilience

Put aside everything you think you know about cryptocurrency. What if I told you there was an asset that defied all expectations and has thrived amidst market chaos?

When markets sink and panicked investors scramble for a life preserver, Bitcoin has often emerged as a lifeline of safety.

Skeptical?

During the 2018 bear market, while the S&P 500 fell by 6%, Bitcoin’s price increased by 80%.

When COVID-19 hit and the market tanked in March 2020, although Bitcoin dropped alongside traditional markets it bounced back much faster. By the end of 2020, Bitcoin had surged over 300%, outperforming ALL other asset classes.

Now, I know what you’re thinking – 2022.

Bitcoin tanked along with the S&P 500 at the end of 2021 going down from an all-time high of $69,420 to a bottom in November of 2022 of $15,599 – a 78.82% drop – while the S&P lost only 19.44% in 2022.

That’s a huge difference! Imagine losing more than 3/4 of your nest egg!

Who wouldn’t panic?

Not to mention that the S&P recovered quickly and to-date (May 1st 2024) is back up by over 30%.

Bitcoin? Went from that $15.6K bottom to a new all-time high of $73,650 in March of 2024 and has now settled back down to just over $59,000 today – a 280% GAIN – almost 10X what the S&P did in the same timeframe.

Yep. Fortune favors the brave.

This undeniable resilience is due in part to Bitcoin’s decentralized ecosystem. It’s not tied to any particular economy or government, making it less susceptible to geopolitical events or monetary policy decisions that make traditional markets tremble and fall.

Volatile? Compared to the S&P? Heck yeah.

Yet, Bitcoin’s consistent recovery after market downturns is just the beginning of its story. As impressive as Bitcoin’s past performance has been, there’s an even more powerful change agent that could send Bitcoin’s price into rarified air once more: the ‘Halving’.

Reason #2: The Halving and Its Impact on Value

Imagine a built-in mechanism that periodically slashes the supply of a finite commodity, creating a shock of scarcity that ripples through the market.

And the timing of that shock wave is known well in advance.

That’s the power of each Bitcoin halving. Each halving cuts the reward that is handed to Bitcoin miners who solve the algorithmic riddle by half, thereby stemming inflation.

Bitcoin’s halving dates, which occur roughly every four years, have consistently been followed by hockey stick, God candle bull markets. The latest halving happened this past April 19th.

Take a look at halvings in the past and how Bitcoin’s price reacted:

  • First halving (November 2012): Bitcoin’s price increased from $12 to $1,184 in twelve months, a gain of 9,587%
  • Second halving (July 2016): Bitcoin increased from $651 to $19,326 within 18 months, a gain of 2,971%
  • Third halving (May 2020): BTC increased from $8,821 to $64,800 within a year, and to $69,420 just a few months later, a gain of 787%.
  • Fourth halving (April 2024) Bitcoin’s price on this most recent halving day was $63,844. Obviously, history suggests we could see Bitcoin’s price jump again.

Some analysts, like Plan B, who created the now well-known Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model, predict Bitcoin could reach close to $300,000 or more by 2025, just shy of 5X the price on halving day.

Which makes perfect sense considering the diminishing returns that each cycle has shown as it matures.

However, further on, seven-figure price targets are also emerging. One of the most well-known is from Ark Invest’s CEO, Cathie Wood, who now sees a Bitcoin price of  $1 million as too conservative by 2030.

But the halving isn’t the only factor driving Bitcoin’s growth. There’s a tidal wave of institutional money flowing into the market, and it has the potential to change the game entirely.

Reason #3: Increasing Institutional Adoption

From Wall Street to Main Street, the big dogs have finally awakened to Bitcoin’s potential. And following right behind are the “Average Joe” retail investors.

And they’re not just dipping their toes in the water — they’re diving in headfirst.

In 2020, MicroStrategy invested $425 million into Bitcoin, with CEO Michael Saylor calling it “the best money ever created.” MicroStrategy now holds approximately 214,246 BTC (worth $13.8 billion at current prices), which is more than 1% of ALL the 21 million bitcoin that will ever exist.

Square followed suit, allocating $50 million of its cash reserves to Bitcoin.

And in early 2021, Tesla made waves by purchasing $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin.

But it’s not just corporations buying chunks of the Bitcoin pile. PayPal now allows its 350+ million users to buy, sell and hold cryptocurrencies.

And Visa has integrated Bitcoin into its global payment network. The new integration allows users to withdraw cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin directly from a wallet like MetaMask to a Visa debit card.

And nearly a dozen major financial institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale and other huge investment companies have launched various Bitcoin based ETFs for their clients. These Spot ETFs debuted in the U.S. on January 11 with much fanfare, promising to pull billions of dollars in institutional money.

To date, they’ve more than lived up to that hype, exceeding everyone’s expectations. BlackRock’s IBIT alone has amassed more than $15 billion, while the twenty-four other funds taken together have registered a net inflow of over $12 billion.

And an interesting aspect of Blackrock’s inflow’s in the first several months is that nearly 90% of that money has been coming from retail investors (John Q Public) not the huge pension funds, uber wealthy family offices and other big money managers…just yet.

According to renowned analyst Willy Woo, Bitcoin is on the verge of a monumental leap, expecting it to match the Internet’s growth trajectory from 1997 to 2005.

Woo believes this tectonic shift in adoption has been brewing for years.

“1 billion people will own Bitcoin by the end of this cycle,” Woo said.

He highlighted the digital currency’s accelerated adoption rate, which outpaces that of the early Internet.

The influx of institutional money is a game-changer. As result, we saw an unprecedented new all-time high just months before the halving. That’s NEVER happened. Not even close.

Now, Hong Kong just introduced its own crypto ETFs.

Considering the Asian cryptocurrency market is the size of the North and South American AND European crypto markets combined? That’s going to be an awful lot more money potentially flowing into the Bitcoin network.

As more institutional players enter the market, they bring increased liquidity, stability and mainstream credibility to Bitcoin. However, it’s not the only factor driving Bitcoin’s adoption. Behind the scenes, Bitcoin’s technology is evolving at a rapid pace.

Reason #4: Technological Advancements and Network Effects

Bitcoin isn’t just digital gold — it’s a living, breathing technology that’s constantly evolving.

And with each upgrade, Bitcoin becomes more valuable, useful, and unstoppable.

The 2021 Taproot upgrade was a significant improvement to the previous Bitcoin protocol that was activated in 2017. It demonstrated the ongoing evolution of the Bitcoin protocol to meet the growing demands and challenges of the digital currency ecosystem. This Taproot upgrade introduced improvements in privacy, efficiency and smart contract capabilities on the Bitcoin network.

Moreover, Bitcoin’s Lightning Network, a “layer two” payment protocol, enables near-instant, low-cost transactions, making Bitcoin a more serious contender for everyday purchases and micropayments, increasing its potential for further widespread adoption.

According to Metcalfe’s Law, a network’s value is proportional to the square of the number of its users.

With Bitcoin’s user base growing exponentially, from 35 million in 2018 to over 460 million in 2024, and the introduction of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2023, its value proposition has gone from a speculative asset to a core financial instrument.

If Willy Woo is right, Bitcoin will dramatically increase in value in the coming years.

Reason #5: The Bitcoin Cycle

What if I told you that I could predict, with uncanny certainty, when Bitcoin would reach new all-time highs and when it would drop like a stone off a cliff.

You’d think I was delusional, right?

But I can. And so can you!

Thanks to the ridiculously predictable timeline of returns that follow each halving date in Bitcoin and provide an annualized pattern of up, up, down, up each and every four years since it was first introduced 16 years ago.

Why do you think Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock, who used to pan Bitcoin every chance he got, suddenly changed his tune and is now outspoken Bitcoin evangelist?

The answer? His highly paid analysts showed him four consecutive cycles of near to-the-day predictability of what Bitcoin will do at certain times within each four year cycle.

Up in price the year the halving occurs.

Up more the following year with a new all-time high close to the end of that year.

Down dramatically in the third year of the cycle, bottoming out quickly, often losing more than 70% of its value.

Then up again in the last year of the cycle as the recovery gains significant strength.

Will it continue to be that easy?

Maybe, but the ETFs could have an effect that may make the downturns even less. We’ll see come 2026. However, the most compelling reason to invest in Bitcoin is its ability to strengthen and diversify your investment portfolio.

Reason #6: Diversification Benefits in Investment Portfolios

In a world of economic uncertainty, Bitcoin is the ultimate hedge. It’s the One-Stop-Shop of assets, providing diversification, protection, and growth potential all in one.

Studies have shown that adding just a small amount of Bitcoin to a traditional 60/40 stock/bond portfolio can significantly improve risk-adjusted returns.

For example, from April 2017 to April 2024, Bitcoin’s ROI was 4,647% compared to the S&P 500’s 111% in the same timeframe, or Gold at 83%. And you’ll note that includes the year that Bitcoin crashed hard. This demonstrates Bitcoin’s potential to enhance any portfolio’s performance, even in small doses.

Longer term?

Had you invested even just 1% of your portfolio in Bitcoin in 2013, while the S&P 500 gained 218% in that Baker’s dozen of years, your 1% investment in Bitcoin would have grown by 45,261%.

Time IN the market versus TIMING the market works for Bitcoin as well.

So the New Mantra is: Don’t wait to buy Bitcoin. Buy Bitcoin and wait. Or is it?

The evidence is clear that Bitcoin is a force to be reckoned with. The stars have aligned once again for Bitcoin to make a massive move in the coming months. But wait a minute…here’s the other side of that coin – 6 reasons you shouldn’t buy any Bitcoin this year…or maybe ever.

Reason #1: It’s Too Expensive.

Bitcoin is fast becoming the Berkshire Hathaway A shares of cryptocurrency.

It’s been expensive for a while, but this year, it’s surged to record highs – breaking through the $70,000 mark for the first time in its history. Which means that to score just a 100% gain – a relatively small win by crypto standards – Bitcoin would have to go to nearly $150,000 per coin.

And of course that could happen – in fact, as mentioned before, there are plenty of pundits who think it’ll double that number and then some, but still, even a 300% gain is kinda small compared to what some other coins have done in the recent past.

For example Fetch AI (FET), an Ethereum token that powers Fetch.ai, a decentralized machine learning platform for applications such as asset trading, gig economy work, and energy grid optimization, is already up more than 4,000% from its last cycle low.

Which means, there are plenty of better opportunities to make MUCH BIGGER gains in crypto if you know where to look.

Another reason not to buy Bitcoin is its popularity.

Reason #2: It’s Too Mainstream

Everyone and their grandma knows about Bitcoin.

It’s now the cryptocurrency “industry standard” which is why it was the first crypto to garner ETF approval by the SEC.

And while that’s definitely a plus for the crypto market in terms of lending credibility to the cryptocurrency in general, that also means you’ll be competing for profits with millions of other people who ONLY know about Bitcoin. In almost every case of big money making cryptos, once it gets all sorts of publicity, the real millionaires have already been made.

Bitcoin’s been in the news for more than a decade. Seriously hard to make you into the next “crypto gazillionaire” that way, no?

Because it isn’t the only cryptocurrency available, looking into others and finding out which ones besides Bitcoin are doing well is essential. 

Reason #3: It Lacks Utility

Updates don’t really matter if they’re never utilized.

What some people call “digital gold” others call an “imaginary coin” because it’s an intangible that only seems to have value because a group of zealous investors say it does.

While Bitcoin is an excellent form of decentralized finance, it doesn’t offer the same kind of widespread usability that other crypto tokens do.

For example, there are cryptos out there right now that are revolutionizing everything from payment processing to real estate, gaming and even recycling. Plus, they’re doing it far more cost effectively than Bitcoin.

The most obvious alternative to Bitcoin (aka an Alt coin) is the “Queen” of cryptos, Ethereum. ETH is a decentralized software platform that enables smart contracts and decentralized applications to be built and run without any downtime, fraud, control, or interference from a third party. 

Another popular Alt coin is the native token for the XRP Ledger, created as a payment system by Ripple in 2012. Despite legal troubles here in the US, XRP is used by hundreds of international banks around the globe.

Another prime example is Solana (SOL), a blockchain platform designed to support decentralized applications (dApps). Sometimes referred to as an ‘Ethereum killer,’ Solana performs many more transactions per second than Ethereum. Additionally, it charges lower transaction fees than Ethereum.

Filecoin (FIL) is an alternative to cloud-based file storage.

Audius (AUDIO) is attempting to break down the walls in the music industry.

And the Basic Attention Coin (BAT) is incentivizing switching from Google to a new search engine called Brave, by rewarding its users for looking at advertising on Brave with BAT tokens.

Needless to say, the cryptocurrency marketplace has evolved far from what Satoshi thought it would become and the opportunities for other cryptos to become even more mainstream than Bitcoin is continually growing.

Reason #4: Bitcoin’s Dominance May END This Cycle.

While Bitcoin is still the world’s leading crypto, there’s a real chance it could be dethroned…as soon as next year. I admit that this one is longshot, but it’s still a possibility.

Not only are several cryptos much more useful than Bitcoin but people who actually use and develop applications on the blockchain using crypto are NOT doing it with Bitcoin.

If you’re going to buy cryptocurrencies in this cycle you should be doing research into which ones are the best bets for 1000% jumps in value based on actual usage, NOT because you read somewhere on the internet that this coin or that coin is going to be the “next Bitcoin”.

Reason #5: The Biggest Bitcoin Gains Have Already Been Made

The crypto market in its entirety is worth over $2.63 TRILLION dollars and Bitcoin ALONE makes up for $1.33 trillion of that – more than HALF of the value of ALL cryptocurrencies.

That means that if you wanted to actually profit big from Bitcoin, you should have done it a LONG time ago. The ‘turn $1 into $1 million’ opportunity bus left a long time ago and you weren’t on it. And if you’re standing at the station looking down the road?

Sorry to break it to you but it’s not coming back.

Reason #6: Bitcoin’s Rising Tide Floats All Boats

Despite all of the reasons NOT to buy Bitcoin, it’s still likely to surge much higher and just like has happened in every cycle before this one, the BIGGEST gains are going to come from the tiny cryptos that initially ride Bitcoins coattails and then leave it in the dust on their way to the moon in terms of percentage gains.

Take a look at Coinmarketcap’s list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies and that should give you plenty of ideas for alternative investment beyond Bitcoin.

 Just please don’t buy into meme coin hype.

So, there you have it

Both sides of the cryptocurrency investment argument.

Either way, NOW is the time to position yourself for potentially life-changing gains in the years ahead.

Whether your investment is big or small, don’t miss this once-in-a-generation opportunity.

Full disclosure: Upwards of 60+% of my cryptocurrency portfolio is straight up Bitcoin, and give or take a few percentage points, around 20% is Ethereum, with the remaining 20% made up of various percentages of some 40+ different Alt coins. Truth be told I fully expect that a few of those will blow the doors off the ROI I’ll get from Bitcoin, but at this point, so early in the cycle, it’s a total question mark which ones.

If you want to know what Alt coins I’m investing heavily in, feel free to email me at john.logan@moneytree.ventures.

Subscribe to my blog so you’ll get alerts when new posts like this come out.

And if you haven’t done so already, get my book and learn how to plant your own money tree.

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Investing in Bitcoin 101

Sometimes the big picture is hard to see

I’m a long time fan of James Bond, and Ian Fleming’s 1959 novel ‘Goldfinger’.

In the book (not the movie) after James Bond ‘coincidentally’ runs into the master villain Auric Goldfinger for the third time, Goldfinger says:

“Mr. Bond, they have a saying in Chicago: “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it’s enemy action.”

Of course, what he’s saying is that he’s recognized a pattern of behavior. Having been in the insurance industry for many years I know that actuaries, who base their science on statistical patterns, have a similar saying. To paraphrase Mr. Fleming: 

“Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time is a pattern.”

If we apply that theory to Bitcoin then an easily recognizable pattern of behavior of the King of Crypto is not only clearly visible but undeniable.

I’ve heard people say time and time again that investing in any cryptocurrency is gambling, or worse, a Ponzi scheme. I can’t dispute that opinion for many Meme coins or the 10,000+ ‘alt’ coins now on the market, but where Bitcoin is concerned…applied correctly…it sure isn’t gambling.

It ain’t rocket science…

The reality is that anyone who takes the time to do the research on the history of Bitcoin, it’s price fluctuations from halving to halving, from all-time highs to crypto winter lows, and everything in between, the idea that Bitcoin is unpredictably volatile becomes simply the nonsense of the uninformed.

It turns out that Bitcoin highs and lows, while being very hard to predict in terms of pricing, are relatively easy to predict in terms of timing.

Of course, this theory flies in the face of traditional stock market investing in that any expert will tell you that time IN the market will result in a much better outcome than TIMING the market. The reality of stock market, real estate and commodity investing is that even the most expert of gurus can’t tell you when or how the next crash or bull run will be with any relative accuracy.

Looking back at the history of Bitcoin, almost the exact opposite is true.

I can tell you, with relative accuracy, when the next bull run on Bitcoin will occur, when it will crash, and when it will start to recover, and when that cycle will repeat again in the future.

That’s a bold statement, eh? And I know you’re saying to yourself “Either this guy is super cocky and full of shit, or he knows something I don’t”. I’m going to wager that if you don’t already know what I’m talking about then the latter is true.

I don’t claim to have a crystal ball. I will tell you point blank that I’m not very good at predicting all time high prices but I am pretty good at predicting bottoms and (so far for this cycle) interim pricing, but there’s a saying that ‘close’ only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades…and nuclear weapons.

However, ‘close‘, in terms of buying close to the bottom and selling close to the top with Bitcoin can make you extremely rich…IF you know when those bottoms and tops might occur.

I do.

And you can bet your britches that this is part and parcel why guys like Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest investment firm, went from panning Bitcoin just a few years ago to suddenly saying things like “Bitcoin is an asset that can revolutionize finance through increased tokenization and the democratization of investing“.

He knows. And if you continue reading, now, you will too.

What you do with this information is up to you.

So, let’s get into it.

This is known as the “Bitcoin Cycles Hypothesis” and it postulates that Bitcoin repeats a four-year cycle, give or take a couple weeks, since its beginning, from halving day to halving day. The key difference between Bitcoin and the stock market is that in mature traditional asset markets, the beginning and end of cycles are much harder to identify and usually last much longer than 4 years.

The short version of this theory is that Bitcoin’s prices will be – on an annual basis starting on its next halving date – up, up, down and up. And that it has done that since it was invented nearly 15 years ago.

That being the case, considering that the next halving date is currently projected to be April 17, 2024 (1,487 days from its previous halving date of May 11, 2020) we are currently in the last phase of the current cycle.

What does that mean?

Well, considering that as I write this on 8/12/2023, Bitcoin’s price is $29,432.34, for example: not buying Bitcoin @ <$30,000 (like NOW) is like not buying Bitcoin @ <$10,000 in 2019, or not buying Bitcoin @ <$500 in 2015, or not buying Bitcoin @ <$10 in 2011.

Here’s how I come to that conclusion.

Each 4-year Bitcoin cycle consists of 3 phases:

  1. The (mature) bull market, which lasts about 1 year. Technically, that is initiated by the BTC halving, but in terms of the actual gate opening, this phase starts right around the last month of the halving year. This phase ends when the newest Bitcoin all-time high (ATH) is achieved, whether that is a double top (as in 2013 and 2021 and potentially 2025 – more on that later) or a single top (as in 2017).
  2. The bear market, which lasts about 1 year. A bear market follows quickly after the ATH and a cliff drop of the BTC price marks the beginning of ‘crypto winter’. On average, Bitcoin loses well over 75% of its value during this phase of the cycle. The vast majority of new (and even some seasoned veterans who buy into the “this time is different” hype) investors lose hope…and their money…somewhere in here.
  3. The recovery phase, AKA the early bull market, which lasts about 2 years. After the sharp declines and Bitcoin reaches a macro price bottom, there is a long phase of accumulation opportunity that defines the so-called ‘boredom’ of crypto winter. During this phase, Bitcoin goes up, but it does so very slowly with numerous corrections. And in some cycles, like 2012-16 and this one, trades in nearly flat patterns for months at a time.

Bigtime credit to well-known analyst @theratinalroot, who shares my opinion on this theory and has illustrated it so well in the following graph:

Source: Twitter

As you can see in the graph above, (at this writing) we are currently in Phase 3 of the Bitcoin cycle, the previous bottom being back on November 20, 2022 at $15,599.05. And we will likely not see any remarkable rocket-like pumps in price for the months to come, again, making this part of the cycle a perfect time to accumulate at a low price relative to the eventual new all-time high, estimated near the end of 2025.

How does the halving come into play and start this ball rolling?

First, you have to understand how Bitcoin mining works. Bitcoin is mined in what is referred to as “blocks”. Each block refers to a set of Bitcoin transactions from a certain time period. Blocks are “stacked” on top of each other in such a way that one block depends on, and is connected to, the previous block. Using this method, a ‘chain’ of blocks is created, and thus we come to the term “blockchain”.

A halving happens at every 210,000 blocks. The 2024 halving will happen on block number 840,000. It’s called a halving because the reward for mining each block is cut in half at that point, so each halving decreases the amount of new bitcoins generated per block. This means the supply of new bitcoins is less after each halving, making buying each Bitcoin more expensive due to the more limited supply.

In the practical application of the law of supply and demand, lower supply with steady demand typically leads to higher prices. Since the halving reduces the supply of new Bitcoins, and demand usually remains steady and has usually increased as the price goes up due to wider interest as the media regains its interest and we see more and more wild high price predictions, the halving has always been the bellwether of Bitcoin’s biggest bull runs.

Below, the long blue lines indicate the last three halvings (11/28/2012, 7/9/2016 and 5/11/2020). Note how the price jumped significantly shortly after each halving.

Source: https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/

So, if this is true, why aren’t there more Bitcoin gazillionaires than ever? Why isn’t everyone doing this already?

Reread the first few paragraphs of this post. Everyone was expecting Bitcoin to be like gold or stocks. Unpredictable.

It’s not.

Notice that the spiral graph starts at 2013, NOT back in 2009 when Bitcoin was first invented. That’s because the first cycle, starting in January of 2009 and ending at the end of November in 2012 is considered an outlier, a potential fluke, so from an actuarial or analysis perspective it is ignored in terms of pattern recognition.

Hey…that repeated once. Okay. Yeah, so?

Then twice. Okay. Just a fluke though probably.

Third time’s the charm. Now you have my attention. Keep an eye on it.

The timing of this cycle’s bottom was technically the fourth proving point, which is why we’ve seen the ‘sudden’ switch in sentiment by many investment Big Dogs. It really isn’t sudden at all, they’ve just been waiting for confirmation because people kept saying…

“But this time will be different.”

Rug pulls. Big time hacks. Countries banning all cryptos. Failing exchanges. The SEC on a rampage. Whale manipulation. The government secretly aiming at CBDCs.

Now ETFs.

I’ve heard all the arguments that Bitcoin ‘cycles’ are simply coincidental, and nobody can predict its future.

Wanna bet?

The reality is that investor psychology comes into play here as well.

You may have seen this infographic before that shows the typical retail investor’s emotions as the stock market rises and falls.

 Source: financialhorse.com

Again, thanks to @theratinalroot who created the Bitcoin spiral graph showing the same behaviors.

Source: bitcoinstrategyplatform.com

What are the odds that once the coming bull run gets into gear that new investors in crypto having FOMO will pile on like they did last cycle (without doing any research) not wanting to miss out the one to one million gains that get hyped every cycle?

Pretty darn good.

Just like in the stock market, many will buy in the ‘Thrill’ phase (high prices) and sell in the ‘Panic’ phase (low prices) and media pundits will decry that Bitcoin is “too volatile” for the average investor.

It just ain’t so.

If you’ve ever studied organizational behavior, or even history or politics, you’ve likely heard some variant of this list:

There are known knowns. These are things we know we know. Easy to identify.

There are known unknowns. These are things we know we don’t know. Still, mostly identifiable.

There are unknown unknowns. These are things we don’t know we don’t know. Almost impossible to identify.

And lastly there are unknown knowns. These are things we know, but we don’t realize we know them until someone (or some occurrence) points them out. Think of this last part as an explanation of ‘not seeing the forest for the trees’.

Consider this explanation of Bitcoin cycles as showing you the forest.

Big picture. There it is…right in front of you…the whole time. But you probably didn’t see it.

Granted, there are still plenty of unknowns of all kinds with crypto.

What impact will the ETFs have? Are more regulations ever going to be put in place? etc.

And, with the $100,000 price being a marker that Bitcoin may cross this coming cycle, being certainly a psychological target for long-term HODLERs – just like the $50,000 price point was likely the cause of the last double top in this cycle – will this coming bull market have a double top too?

Very likely. But I’ll save that discussion for another day.

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